June 2026 Retail & Media Intelligence Report

The New Value Equation: Consumers Aren’t Spending Less. They’re Spending Smarter.

Rising costs are not creating a simple pullback. Evidnt purchase-level data shows a more precise shift: shoppers are consolidating loyalty, preserving basket value, and optimizing for better value per ounce.

+11%

Increase in shopper loyalty to primary stores, suggesting fewer new-store trials

−8.1%

Decline in price per ounce / fluid ounce while basket dollar value remains stable

Stable

Private label share has not materially increased as a percentage of total sales

Data note: Evidnt sales signals reflect purchase behavior across independent retailers, c-stores, bars, and restaurants. External market signals around inflation, fuel costs, and consumer sentiment are used as context, but the core findings are grounded in Evidnt sales behavior.

The headline story is not a consumer pullback

For much of the past quarter, the market narrative has focused on rising costs: food prices, fuel prices, tariffs, and broader household uncertainty. The assumption is that consumers are broadly cutting back.

Evidnt’s purchase-level data points to a more nuanced story. Consumers are not abandoning consumption. They are reorganizing it. They are choosing retailers more carefully, buying at similar basket values, and finding better value inside the same categories.

This is not a collapse in demand. It is a reset in how shoppers define value.

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Signal 1: Consumers are consolidating retail loyalty

Evidnt data shows an 11% increase in shopper loyalty to primary retailers. That means shoppers are returning to the same stores more frequently and becoming less likely to test new retail locations.

This likely reflects a new form of value-based loyalty. Once consumers find a store that fits their pricing expectations, product availability, location convenience, and household needs, they are more likely to stay with it.

• Store switching behavior appears to be declining
• Known retailers are earning a larger share of repeat trips
• The cost of experimentation is rising for shoppers

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Signal 2: Basket value is holding, but value per unit is improving

The most important finding is that overall basket dollar value remains relatively stable, while price per ounce and price per fluid ounce has declined by 8.1%.

That means consumers are not simply buying less. They are getting more efficient. They are maintaining consumption while finding better value inside the basket.

• Pack sizes remain broadly similar
• Basket dollar value remains stable
• Cost per ounce is declining
• Consumers are value shopping without necessarily reducing total spend

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Signal 3: Private label has not materially changed

A common assumption in inflationary periods is that consumers automatically trade down into private label. Evidnt data does not show a significant increase in private label share as a percentage of total sales.

That matters. The shopper is not simply abandoning brands. Instead, consumers are becoming more selective about which brands deserve their price premium.

The winning products are not necessarily the cheapest. They are the ones that make value obvious.

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Value selectivity is replacing price sensitivity

Price-sensitive shoppers simply look for the lowest price. Value-selective shoppers make tradeoffs.

They may save on pantry items, optimize beverages by cost per ounce, stay loyal to a retailer with better pricing, and still spend on brands that feel worth it. This explains why some premium products remain resilient even as households become more financially disciplined.

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Media plans are still optimized for the wrong behavior

Most media plans still assume consumers are maximizing desire. Increasingly, consumers are maximizing value.

That creates a structural mismatch. Campaigns built around novelty, impulse, and broad promotional urgency may underperform if shoppers are actively consolidating routines, sticking with known retailers, and evaluating purchases through value-per-unit logic.

• Retailer loyalty is becoming more important than one-off conversion
• Value-per-unit messaging may outperform simple price messaging
• Repeat behavior matters more when consumers are trying fewer new stores
• Premium brands need to make the value exchange clearer

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Promotion is becoming more category specific

Discounting still works, but it is no longer a universal lever. When consumers are actively managing value, promotion can drive switching in substitutable categories but may not meaningfully change behavior in categories where loyalty, trust, or routine already dominate.

The smarter question is not “should we discount?” It is “where does discounting change behavior, and where does it simply subsidize demand that already existed?”

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Micro Case: The Retail Loyalty Shift

Historically, rising economic pressure often pushed consumers to shop around more aggressively. This cycle appears different.

Evidnt observed an 11% increase in shopper loyalty to primary retailers. That suggests consumers are not searching endlessly for lower prices. They are identifying retailers that consistently meet their value expectations and concentrating more of their spend there.

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Forward-looking signals for the next 30–60 days