Inflation may have eased across much of the food and beverage sector, but volatility hasn’t disappeared — it’s just evolving. In the second half of 2025, brands face a different challenge: navigating shifting consumer loyalty, selective elasticity, supply constraints, and emerging macroeconomic risks.

Evidnt’s retail data from mid- and long-tail channels points to a competitive landscape where growth now depends on disciplined execution, not just pricing agility. Layered on top of this is a new variable: the introduction of new tariff policies, the impact of which remains uncertain, but could reshape margins, sourcing strategies, and shelf pricing for some brands later this year.

As brands enter the back half of 2025, there are a few critical moves that matter most.

1. Inventory Discipline Is Now a Differentiator

National out-of-stock (OOS) rates are trending upward, particularly in the soft drinks, gummies, and snack foods categories, where distribution depth is crucial for maintaining market share. This isn’t a return to 2021-level disruption, but it is a consistent pattern we’re seeing across emerging brands with limited fulfillment capacity or dependence on specific retailers.

What to do:

Assess OOS risk and inventory velocity at the SKU level. Prioritize stability for top-performing items in value, convenience, and mid-tier grocery, especially where category competition is high.

2. Elasticity Is Fragmented — Pricing Must Be Data-Driven

Post-inflation behavior varies significantly across categories:

• Candy, chocolate, and gummies are still price-resilient. Elasticity is low, yet volume remains strong despite continued price hikes.

• Jerky and chips remain highly elastic, with even slight changes in price causing significant shifts in market rank.

• Snack foods show limited responsiveness, suggesting promo saturation or shopper fatigue.

• Soft drinks remain highly volatile, with elasticity ranging widely and broader brand churn.

What to do:

Approach pricing and promo strategy with precision. Use recent elasticity data to identify where to apply pressure and where to hold position. Avoid blanket pricing decisions — they’re no longer effective.

3. Promotions Still Work — But Only in the Right Categories

Categories like jerky, chips, and selected beverage SKUs still respond well to promotional activity. But across much of the market, promotions are generating a lower return than in previous years.

The overuse of discounting in snack foods and certain shelf-stable products is leading to volume churn without genuine conversions.

What to do:

Target your top 20% of SKUs by volume and elasticity, and focus promotional investment where there is clear upside. Let weak-response products find their baseline without unnecessary price support.

4. Tariff Uncertainty Could Disrupt Planning in Q4

Emerging trade policy developments — including new tariff proposals being discussed for imported ingredients and packaging — introduce added uncertainty for the second half of the year.

While the scope and timing of any enforcement remain unclear, brands with exposure to imported inputs or co-manufactured goods should begin evaluating potential cost impacts and sourcing alternatives now.

What to do:

Scenario plan for potential tariff-driven cost shifts. Assess which product lines may be most vulnerable and consider how that could impact pricing, promotional margins, or supplier relationships.

5. Loyalty Now Lives in the Core SKU

One clear trend this year: shoppers are consolidating loyalty around core items — the products they buy repeatedly, where trust and quality are proven.

This means new products are struggling to scale quickly, and brand equity is increasingly concentrated in flagship SKUs.

What to do:

Invest in your core. Ensure flagship items are consistently in stock, supported by clear messaging, and easily accessible. For many consumers, a single positive experience with a hero SKU can anchor their spending across your entire portfolio.

Final Thought

The second half of 2025 won’t be shaped by inflation, but by how brands respond to a fragmented, pressurized retail environment.

Inconsistent inventory, selective price sensitivity, out-of-stock (OOS) trends, and potential macroeconomic shocks, such as tariffs, will define the playing field. Brands that succeed will prioritize:

• Supply chain resilience

• SKU-level promo targeting

• Consumer loyalty on key products

• Contingency planning for emerging cost risks

Evidnt gives you the data you need to act on these trends as they unfold — not months after they impact performance.