Signal 1: Infrastructure Categories Accelerate

• Protein-forward formats +32–41% unit velocity
• Repeat cadence tightened; multi-unit purchases increased
• Functional hydration gaining planned replenishment share

Signal 2: Side-Effect Adjacency Is Structural

• Sugar-free gum +15%
• Oral care adjacency +8%
• Stable velocity without incremental discounting

Signal 3: Indulgence Elasticity Is Breaking

• Candy and sweet bakery −6–9%
• Single-serve impulse hit hardest
• Pantry fiber formats +8–11%

Routine Optimization

Fewer exploratory SKUs per basket and higher SKU concentration within repeat sets.

Protein as Infrastructure

Protein-forward formats behave like staples: planned, repeat-driven, and less promotion-dependent.

Impulse Format Disruption

Single-serve indulgence declines more sharply than multipacks, indicating occasion compression rather than category abandonment.

Adjacency Consolidation

Oral comfort and sugar-free formats show steady repeat patterns without promotional spikes, consistent with maintenance behavior.

Structural Risk: Indulgence-Optimized Media Will Underperform

Retail media strategies built for impulse conversion will structurally underperform in GLP-1-heavy markets
because the behavioral engine that once powered impulse conversion is weakening.

Creative Efficiency Increases in Value

Lower browsing tolerance increases the premium on clarity: one benefit, one usage moment, one proof point.

• Protein formats sustain movement without deeper discounting
• Substitutable staples show higher switching under price ambiguity

Measurement Reset

Separate infrastructure effects from impulse effects. Cohort-level lift reads matter more than blended averages.

• Lactose-free, low-sugar, and clear protein variants to gain share as routine optimization continues.
• Side-effect adjacency expands into broader GI-comfort formats.
• Single-serve indulgence weakens further in GLP-1-heavy markets.
• Staples remain stable in volume but increasingly compete on value narrative.

This is not contraction.

It is disciplined reallocation:

• From impulse to infrastructure
• From discount to durability
• From occasion to routine