Over the last 52 weeks, Evidnt has been tracking pricing, elasticity, promotional behavior, and sales performance across mid- and long-tail retail channels. The data shows a clear pattern: inflationary pressure in food and beverage categories peaked around Q3 2024, and what we’re seeing now is a gradual easing, not a reversal, in market conditions.

Price hikes have slowed. Promotional activity is returning in some categories. And across the board, the dynamic is shifting from price gains to competitive repositioning.

The result? A tougher but more strategic environment — where growth depends on precision, loyalty, and operational discipline, not just price movement.

Prices Have Stabilized — But Sales Performance Varies

In snack foods, the average price movement over the past year has been negligible, with shifts ranging from 0.01% to 0.05%, reflecting a deliberate effort by brands to maintain stability. Despite this, sales growth in snacks has been limited, with an under 3% increase, indicating a muted consumer response to pricing or promotions in this mature, low-volatility category.

In contrast, candy and chocolate tell a different story. Pricing increased by between 0.64% and 1.66%, yet sales growth remained strong, with +20%, supported by consistently high demand. This indicates that some categories retain pricing power, particularly when products are emotionally driven or perceived as accessible indulgences.

Soft drinks fall somewhere in the middle. Prices rose in Q2–Q4 of 2024, ranging from +0.3% to +1.2%. Although sales growth was more modest, increasing by +2.7% to +8.2%, it remained positive. However, elasticity in soft drinks remains volatile, with some extreme outliers suggesting that SKUs experience significant swings in demand due to price fluctuations.

Elasticity of Demand Is Creating Winners and Losers

Elasticity varies widely across categories. In chips and crisps, it’s extremely high, meaning even small price changes can dramatically shift share. This makes promotions a powerful but dangerous lever, especially in an already saturated snack aisle.

In snack foods more broadly, elasticity is moderate, but with significant fluctuations at the SKU level. This suggests that brands without strong loyalty or differentiation are more vulnerable to share loss if they raise prices or reduce support.

Candy and chocolate display relatively stable elasticity, but crucially, the category remains resilient to price hikes. This is a standout in today’s landscape, where pricing tolerance is often the exception rather than the norm.

Out-of-Stocks Are Quietly Creeping Back Up

One trend that cuts across all categories is the slow return of out-of-stock (OOS) pressure. While the extreme distribution issues of 2021–2022 have eased, we’re now seeing a national — not regional — uptick in OOS rates.

In soft drinks, for example, OOS is rising incrementally across the board. This could signal brand-level supply issues or d, especially among premium or emerging players. In snack categories, OOS rates are average, but when paired with weak promotional effectiveness, this can still drag down performance.

The takeaway: inventory reliability is becoming a competitive advantage. Brands that stay on shelf consistently will win by default when competitors can’t keep up.

Consumer Behavior Is No Longer Monolithic

Perhaps the most important shift we’re tracking is fragmentation in consumer response.

Some shoppers are trading down, seeking lower-cost alternatives or returning to legacy brands after experimenting with premium options during COVID-era spending shifts. This is visible in soft drinks, where newer functional soda brands are under pressure.

At the same time, other shoppers remain loyal, particularly in emotionally driven categories like candy and chocolate, where buying behavior is less sensitive to marginal pricing and more tied to habit or reward.

What this signals is the end of “one-size-fits-all” pricing strategy. Brands must understand who their customer is, where they shop, and how they behave within their specific category context.

What Brands Should Prioritize Now

Given these dynamics, we’re seeing leading brands focus on a few key priorities:

1. Shift From Margin Defense to Share Growth

Inflation has peaked. Margin pressure is easing. It’s time to pivot toward share capture, with more targeted promotions, stronger merchandising, and sharper retail execution.

2. Monitor Out-of-Stock Risk

As OOS pressure increases, staying in stock at the SKU and regional level becomes a core growth lever. Don’t lose share due to distribution breakdowns.

3. Use Elasticity to Guide Promotions

Promotions work — but only where they should. Categories like jerky and chips respond well to price moves. Others, like snack foods, require value messaging or innovation instead of discounts.

4. Reinforce Core SKUs and Loyalty

Brands must protect their foundational products. Core SKUs should lead with consistent quality, clear benefits, and reliable availability — especially as consumers re-evaluate which brands they stick with.

Conclusion

The inflationary surge may be behind us, but the food and beverage market is far from settled.

As price increases level off, brands must compete through strategy, not just price. That means understanding category-specific elasticity, fixing out-of-stock weak points, and leaning into consumer loyalty more than ever.

In a market where the next share gain may come from execution — not cost — real-time insights become indispensable.

Evidnt helps brands spot these shifts early, act on them quickly, and grow with confidence. Reach out to learn more.