As overall inflation eases across food and beverage, one question is guiding brand strategy more than any other: Where can we still raise prices — and where should we hold?

At Evidnt, we’ve tracked retail pricing, elasticity of demand, and velocity across mid- and long-tail retail channels over the past 52 weeks. What’s clear is that not all categories are responding the same to post-inflation conditions. Some remain resilient to price hikes — showing growth, strong loyalty, and low elasticity. Others are starting to show pushback.

Understanding where pricing power still exists is critical for food and beverage brands entering the second half of 2025.

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Candy & Chocolate: Still a Pricing Stronghold

Candy and chocolate continue to perform strongly, even with consistent price increases. Over the last 12 months:

• Average pricing has risen between 0.64% and 1.66%.

• Sales growth has ranged from +19% to +36%, depending on product type and region.

• Elasticity values remain stable, suggesting that even with higher prices, consumers are not significantly changing their buying behavior.

The data suggests that candy remains a recession-resistant category, driven by its role as a small indulgence and emotional purchase. Unlike many food staples, candy purchases are less price-driven and more experience-driven, making this a viable space for premiumization and price optimization.

What stands out most is that discounting in this category has been relatively low (~1%), reinforcing that demand is not dependent on promotion.

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Gummy Candies: Quiet Inflation, Steady Demand

Gummies tell a similar—but more nuanced—story.

While less visible than chocolate, this category has seen:

• Over 68% of SKUs have posted price increases over the past 12 months.

• Inflation is being driven by rising input costs, shifts in ingredient composition (e.g., organic and natural dyes), and increased demand.

• Elasticity remains low to modest, meaning demand is relatively inelastic.

Consumer loyalty and category growth trends suggest shoppers are willing to pay more for perceived better-quality gummies. This opens the door for brands focused on clean-label formulations or added functional benefits. However, out-of-stock issues are becoming more visible in the gummy space, particularly among smaller brands with limited distribution coverage. Larger players have an opportunity to step in with available inventory and gain share from challengers struggling to scale.

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Jerky & Dried Meats: High Sensitivity, High Opportunity

The jerky and meat snack category has been growing at over 7% annually in recent years — a reliable bright spot in the snack space. However, pricing in this category must be handled with care.

Evidnt’s data shows:

• Price shifts can lead to dramatic changes in share, driven by unusually high SKU-level elasticity.

• Pricing and promo strategy must be tightly controlled, especially when brands rely on co-packers or operate within limited retail channels.

That said, when executed well, promotions in this category can be extremely effective, making jerky and meat snacks one of the best candidates for performance-based promotions tied to real-time demand.

Brands with supply flexibility, strong trade partnerships, and well-segmented product lines will find room to expand, even as price-sensitive consumers become more selective.

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Takeaways for Brands

Understanding pricing power isn’t just about average inflation rates. It’s about how consumers behave under real conditions — and whether a brand’s value proposition holds up when costs rise.

Here’s what smart operators are doing now:

1. Optimize pricing in candy and chocolate.

This is a category that supports price moves, especially if tied to packaging upgrades, limited editions, or emotional brand storytelling.

2. Lean into innovation in gummies.

Clean-label, functional, or nostalgic formulations give brands permission to raise prices and expand into higher-margin segments.

3. Be precise with jerky promotions.

Avoid blanket discounts. Instead, target high-velocity SKUs with short-term offers that move product and build brand loyalty without margin dilution.

4. Watch supply-driven gaps.

In both gummies and jerky, smaller brands are losing distribution due to fulfillment issues. Larger brands with a stable supply can capitalize.

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Conclusion

As inflation cools, pricing power becomes more selective — but not impossible. Candy, gummies, and meat snacks all offer paths for margin growth, provided brands move with strategic precision.

This is where category-specific elasticity and SKU-level performance data matter. The difference between a successful price move and lost velocity can now come down to how, when, and where that change happens.

At Evidnt, we help brands track these shifts live — so they can make confident decisions in fast-moving categories.