As inflationary pressures ease in the food and beverage industry, many brands are shifting their focus from pricing strategy to market share recovery. But in highly competitive segments like chips and snack foods, the traditional levers of discounting and promotional pricing are showing signs of fatigue.

Evidnt’s tracking of pricing, elasticity of demand, and velocity across mid- and long-tail retail shows that these categories — once highly responsive to price changes — are now caught in a cycle of high promotion, low impact. Brands are spending more to win less, and consumer behavior is becoming harder to influence with price alone.

Chips & Crisps: Discount-Heavy, Volatility-High

Of all tracked food categories, chips and crisps stand out for their exceptionally high elasticity. This means that even minor changes in price can lead to significant fluctuations in market share.

But this volatility cuts both ways. Over the past 180 days:

• Prices have slightly declined, signaling ongoing promotional intensity.

• Yet share gains are inconsistent, with no clear correlation between price cuts and lasting consumer behavior change.

Brands managing multi-product portfolios — such as Utz and Boulder — have occasionally used pricing shifts to trade share between SKUs. But broadly, we’re seeing that deep discounting is creating instability rather than loyalty.

This makes the chip category one of the most promotion-saturated and price-fragile in today’s retail environment.

Snack Foods: Stable Pricing, Minimal Gains

In the broader snack food market, pricing has remained relatively stable over the last 12 months, with changes in the range of 0.01% to 0.05% — effectively unchanged. Sales growth, however, has also been muted, hovering under 3%.

Elasticity values in this category are moderate, but volatility in the average SKU suggests that consumer demand lacks a strong attachment unless supported by price or brand affinity.

What this tells us is that flat pricing isn’t enough, but nor is aggressive promotion. For many snack food brands, the market is simply saturated, and discounting is no longer a sustainable growth lever.

Why Discounting Is Breaking Down

Several dynamics are contributing to the breakdown of traditional price-based competition:

• Commoditization: Many brands offer similar taste, format, and packaging, giving shoppers few compelling reasons to remain loyal when price shifts.

• Promotion Fatigue: Shoppers have become accustomed to constant discounts, particularly in salty snacks, which has dulled their response to new offers.

• Shelf Crowding: The sheer volume of SKUs in these aisles makes price-based navigation harder. Shelf space becomes a battle of packaging and recognition, not just pricing.

The result? Even well-executed promotions may struggle to break through unless they are backed by stronger positioning, loyalty drivers, or increased availability.

What Smart Brands Are Doing Differently

Leading players in chips and snack foods are starting to shift their playbooks:

1. Use Promotions More Surgically

High elasticity means precision matters. Promoting the right SKUs — at the right depth and in the right channel — is more important than across-the-board discounting.

2. Shift Messaging from Price to Product Value

Flavor, sourcing, and innovation —such as limited-time offerings —give consumers a reason to choose your brand beyond cost.

3. Protect Distribution Strength

While inflation has eased, distribution constraints haven’t fully stabilized. In some regions, we’re seeing minor signs of regional OOS creep, particularly among smaller snack brands. Brands with consistent stock will outperform, even without aggressive promotions.

4. Streamline Underperforming SKUs

Focus on high-velocity products that drive share, and cut SKUs that rely heavily on pricing to perform. This is especially important in convenience retail, where space is limited and velocity is king.

Conclusion

Snack foods and chips remain essential categories in the food aisle, but the era of reliable discount-led growth is fading. Elasticity is high, loyalty is fragile, and shoppers are more difficult to sway with price alone.

The path forward requires targeted promotion, effective retail execution, and clear brand value. Brands that double down on core SKUs, reinforce differentiation, and stay agile with pricing data will be better positioned to ride out the volatility of the second half of 2025.

Evidnt helps brands identify these shifts in real time, so that pricing decisions aren’t reactive, but strategic.